Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is expected to be one of the stars of Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we’ll look at BetMGM’s prop betting odds and lines for Kelce’s reception and yardage projections in the big game, and make our best bets for Super Bowl LIV.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receptions: 5.5
After catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 51-31 comeback victory over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Kelce was held to three catches and 30 yards on four targets in the AFC Championship against the Tennessee Titans.
The five-time Pro Bowler totaled 97 receptions, 1,229 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. He recorded more than five receptions on 10 occasions.
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Only four teams allowed fewer receptions per game to tight ends than the 49ers’ 4.1. Kelce will be heavily targeted by QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as the Chiefs’ No. 1 option in the passing game, but the Niners do a great job of limiting yards after the catch.
I’d expect a drop in his efficiency after averaging 12.8 yards per reception in the regular season, but I’m taking the OVER 5.5 (-147) as Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy scheme to keep him involved, especially on third downs and near the goal line.
Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receiving yards: 76.5
Jan 19, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) is introduced before the AFC Championship Game against the Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports
No team allowed fewer receiving yards per game to tight ends in the regular season than the 49ers. They surrendered just 34.5 yards per game to the position. Kelce topped this projection in each of his first four games of the regular season, but he did so just thrice more through the final 12 games and in only one of the Chiefs’ two playoff games.
As mentioned above, I like Kelce to stay involved on key possessions and stay closer to the line of scrimmage. The Niners will wrap him up down the field and limit his yards after the catch. Take the UNDER 76.5 (-111) as Mahomes and his go-to target are forced more into more of a possession-based passing attack.
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorite over 49ers
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