Eight of the 15 NFL point-spread underdogs won outright in Week 4, and two more covered, dropping favorites to 24-38 against the midweek lines posted at BetMGM.
The winning-outright list included the 10½-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who out-dueled the host Los Angeles Rams 55-40 in the highest-scoring game of the season to date.
We also took advantage here, siding with two underdogs (Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers) who wound up winning outright a week ago while falling short with the Minnesota Vikings in Chicago.
That maintains my 66.7 season win percentage at a profitable 8-4.
After four losing weeks for favorites, bookmakers are generally rejoicing while quietly lowering lines a half-point here or a point there to try and help get the tally closer to an even split. Will the tide begin to turn this week?
Your Week 5 best-bet selections with Wednesday odds courtesy of BetMGM:
L.A. Rams (+1½) at Seattle Seahawks
Sep 15, 2019; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass against the New Orleans Saints during the second quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports
The Rams, as aforementioned, are coming off their first loss and were embarrassed in the process, turning the ball over four times (three interceptions and a fumble by QB Jared Goff) and surrendering six more points (55, including a defensive touchdown) than they had in their three previous games combined.
That points to a bounce-back performance, as the nine teams losing outright last season as a touchdown favorite or more went 7-2 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in their ensuing game. The Rams will be the first to put this angle to the test in 2019.
L.A. has won three of its last four in Seattle, including 33-31 and 42-7 victories the last two seasons, and this is a 3-1 Seattle team that hasn’t shown much yet aside that it can beat up on inferior foes with its three victories coming against the winless Bengals and Cardinals and a 28-26 Week 2 squeaker against a shell-shocked Steelers team which lost Ben Roethlisberger early in the contest.
The wrong team is favored here, and since you’re not even getting two points, go with the Rams +105 on the moneyline. New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the underdog Rams pays a profit of $10.50 should the Rams win outright or lose by a single point.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+3½) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports
The Steelers are finding their way under second-year QB Mason Rudolph, and the defense stepped up big time Monday night, notching eight sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers in a 27-3 rout of the visiting Bengals.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have dropped two straight, surrendering a combined 73 points in losses to the Chiefs and Browns. Baltimore is tied with K.C. for the league scoring lead with 135 points in four games, but 72 of those points came against the defenseless Dolphins and Cardinals.
The Steelers are in an interesting spot as home underdogs of more than a field goal for only the seventh time in the last 24 years and they’ve went 3-3 SU in those six games, covering in four of them.
Take the Steelers (-121) and the field goal plus the usually-crucial hook in this AFC North rivalry tilt.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4½) at New Orleans Saints
Photo Credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have won both of Teddy Bridgewater’s starts since Drew Brees was lost to a thumb injury, but offensive touchdowns have been hard to come by with Teddy B. directing only three TD drives in 11 quarters since taking over in Week 2.
The Bucs, meanwhile, have been tough to figure, winning both of their games as road underdogs of six or more points (Week 2 at Carolina, last week at L.A.) and losing both of their home contests as a pick ’em (Week 1 vs. the 49ers ) and a 6½-point favorite (Week 3 vs. the Giants).
They’re back as a road underdog this week, so swoop up the Buccaneers with the points (-134) as we expect Bridgewater and Co., to have a tough time pulling away from Jameis Winston and the potent Tampa offense.
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