Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

What you need to know for Monday’s games

Right Where They Want Them?: The Philadelphia 76ers have been the best team in basketball since the beginning of December and much of that has come in entertaining fashion: overs are 20-6 over that stretch. Not that Orlando Magic backers need more fuel to their fire (11-2 ATS over their past 13 road games), but they have managed to cover the number in 10 of their past 15 games that have gone over the total.

Home Court Advantage:The spread on the betting board that looks the most “off” today is that in the Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors game … sportsbooks know what they are doing. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS at home this season while the Warriors are an ugly 8-16 ATS when playing on the road. If you’re more of a totals better, note that neither of these teams played over the weekend. It’s also worth being aware of the fact that overs are 15-9-1 when the Thunder play at home and 18-5-1 when the Warriors play on the road.

Boring Blazers: The Portland Trail Blazers wrap up a 12-day 6-game homestand tonight against the Atlanta Hawks in a game that sportsbooks are labeling as a coin flip. That sentiment should send off alarms in your head: the Blazers are 3-9 ATS and unders are 2-10 when the spread closes at three or fewer points.

Schroder’s Spot: The Los Angeles Lakers won’t have LeBron James or Anthony Davis in the lineup tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. While this is brutal for Brooklyn fans hoping to catch the King in a game already missing Kevin Durant, it does open up major value for Lakers guard Dennis Schroder, a player rostered in fewer than 30% of ESPN leagues and yet due for a major workload against a Nets team that can struggle to protect the perimeter when undermanned. For those building DFS lineups, we also recognize Russell Westbrook’s upside and potential to hit triple-double props in a plus spot.

Precious Minutes: We endorsed the Toronto Raptors’ Precious Achiuwa (91% available in ESPN leagues) as a strong streaming play this past Saturday in Portland and the former Kentucky standout delivered 27 points and 13 rebounds. With O.G. Anunoby ruled out for this evening’s matchup with the Suns, Achiuwa is in a good spot to flirt with double-double production once again.

Breaking down Monday’s slate

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 19-31 (28-20-2)
76ers: 32-16 (26-21-1)

Line: 76ers (-10)
BPI Projection: 76ers: 120.6-109.5
Money Line: Magic (+360), 76ers (-480)
BPI Projected winner: 76ers (84.8%)
Total: 232 points BPI Projected Total: 230.1 points

Injury Report:
Magic: Chuma Okeke, (OUT – Knee)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Montrezl Harrell (available in 74.0% of leagues) is a streamer tonight if and only if Joel Embiid (GTD, foot) doesn’t play. Embiid has been struggling with the injury for awhile, and has missed some action, but he’s also turned in games like his MVP moment on Saturday against Nikola Jokic. My hunch is that Embiid could sit on Monday in continued recovery after his monster Saturday, and if he does then Harrell is viable for tonight. But again, don’t play him until you hear for sure that Embiid is out. — Andre Snellings

Fantasy streamer: De’Anthony Melton (available in 62.4% of leagues) retained the starting job even with Tyrese Maxey healthy, and he’s picked up his scoring over the last week to go with his consistently strong defensive numbers. In his last three games, Melton has averaged 15.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.7 3PG, 2.0 SPG and 1.3 BPG in 29.3 MPG. — Snellings

Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York

Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 23-27 (23-25-2)
Nets: 30-19 (25-24-0)

Line: Nets (-8.5)
BPI Projection: Nets: 122.5-113
Money Line: Lakers (+310), Nets (-400)
BPI Projected winner: Nets (80.6%)
Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 235.5 points

Injury Report:
Lakers: Lonnie Walker IV, (GTD – Knee); Anthony Davis, (OUT – Foot); LeBron James, (OUT – Ankle); Austin Reaves, (OUT – Hamstring)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD – Knee); T.J. Warren, (GTD – Lower Leg); Kevin Durant, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Thomas Bryant (available in 80.5% of leagues) could be in for a big night tonight with both Anthony Davis and LeBron James out. The last two times that both were out, Bryant went for 17 points and 10 rebounds against the Nuggets and 21 points and 9 rebounds against the Heat. In the month of January, he also has a 29 point/14 rebound effort and a 31 point/14 rebound outing so his upside for Monday is elite impact player even against Defensive Player of the Year candidate Nic Claxton. — Snellings

Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 27-21 (26-22-0)
Timberwolves: 27-25 (25-27-0)

Line: Kings (PICK)
BPI Projection: Kings (122.5-122.2)
Money Line: Kings (-110), Timberwolves (-110)
BPI Projected winner: Kings (51%)
Total: 236.5 points BPI Projected Total: 244.7 points

Injury Report:
Kings: None
Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert (GTD – Groin); Taurean Prince (GTD – Ankle); Jordan McLaughlin (OUT – Calf); Karl-Anthony Towns (OUT – Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (available in 88.7% of leagues) flies under the radar as one of the more useful role players in fantasy hoops. He does a bit of everything, averaging 11.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.1 3PG and 1.1 BPG in 29.3 MPG in his last eight outings with a triple-double and two other double-doubles during that span. — Snellings

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 27.5 points. Edwards over points is plug and play for me these days. In his last five outings, Edwards has averaged 34.2 PPG while scoring at least 31 points in four of the five games. He just dropped 34 points on the Kings on Saturday and has the capacity to repeat the performance. — Snellings

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 25-24 (23-25-1)
Thunder: 24-25 (32-17-0)

Line: Warriors (-4.5)
BPI Projection: Warriors: 122.5-117
Money Line: Warriors (-190), Thunder (+158)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (65.1%)
Total: 241.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238.3 points

Injury Report:
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (OUT – Hip)
Thunder: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (OUT – Ankle); Luguentz Dort, (OUT – Hamstring); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT – Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Klay Thompson over 21.5 points. Thompson over 3.5 3pt field goals. Thompson has the occasional off game, but his typical performance these days is well over these lines. Going back to December 25, Thompson has at least 24 points scored in 10 of 12 games and at least four made 3-pointers in eight of 12 games. His averages during that span are 27.2 PPG and 4.9 3PG. –Snellings

Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. In each of his last four games, Gilgeous-Alexander has exceeded 42.5 PAR. He’s taken his game to another stratosphere this season and has shockingly positioned the Thunder as a contender. Gilgeous-Alexander has a usage rate of 32.5% this season and should be actively involved against the Warriors. — Moody

Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 23-26 (23-25-1)
Spurs: 14-36 (23-27-0)

Line: Wizards (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Wizards: 121.3-116.6
Money Line: Wizards (-225), Spurs (+185)
BPI Projected winner: Wizards (64.4%)
Total: 235 points BPI Projected Total: 237.3 points

Injury Report:
Wizards: Anthony Gill, (OUT – General Soreness)
Spurs: Josh Richardson, (GTD – Knee); Romeo Langford, (GTD – Hip); Devin Vassell, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Kyle Kuzma over 23.5 points. Kuzma had an off night on Saturday, but had scored at least 25 points in five of his six previous games. Kristaps Porzingis is scheduled to return tonight, but in the last four games that Porzingis played, Kuzma still averaged 27.0 PPG with at least 25 in three of four games. He’s facing a Spurs defense that is in the bottom-third of the league in points allowed to opposing small forwards. — Snellings

Best bet: Kristaps Porzingis over 29.6 points + rebounds. Despite missing the last three games with an ankle injury, Porzingis is no longer on the injury report. As one of the league’s worst defensive teams, the Unicorn has a very favorable matchup against a Spurs team who have eviscerated by bigs all season. This season, Porzingis has averaged 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds. –Moody

Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 13-38 (22-28-1)
Mavericks: 26-25 (17-32-2)

Line: Mavericks (-8)
BPI Projection: Mavericks: 120.7-113.4
Money Line: Pistons (+270), Mavericks (-345)
BPI Projected winner: Mavericks (74.9%)
Total: 229.5 points BPI Projected Total: 234 points

Injury Report:
Pistons: Cory Joseph, (OUT – Back); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT – Hand); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD – Ankle); Christian Wood, (OUT – Thumb); Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jalen Duren (available in 77.7% of leagues) has been a walking double-double all month when he’s played. In the two games before his injury absence and the four games since, Duren has averaged 14.8 PPG *80.8 FG%, 85.0 FT%), 9.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG and 1.0 BPG inn 26.5 MPG. — Snellings

Best bet: Jaden Ivey over 20.5 total points + assists. Ivey has taken over the starting point guard spot in the last week, with Killian Hayes injuring his shoulder and coming off the bench in his return. Ivey has been consistently productive, but in his last five games has seen an uptick to 16.2 PPG and 6.8 APG, with at least 21 total points + assists in four of the five games. — Snellings

Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona

Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 23-28 (26-25-0)
Suns: 26-25 (27-24-0)

Line: Suns (-2.5)
BPI Projection: Suns (120.6-114.7)
Money Line: Raptors (+118), Suns (-140)
BPI Projected winner: Suns (54.8%)
Total: 226.5 points BPI Projected Total: 230.7 points

Injury Report:
Raptors: Dalano Banton, (GTD – Hip); O.G. Anunoby, (OUT – Wrist); Otto Porter Jr., (OUT – Foot)
Suns: Cameron Payne, (OUT – Foot); Landry Shamet, (OUT – Foot); Devin Booker, (OUT – Groin); Jae Crowder, (OUT – Not Injury Related)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Precious Achiuwa (rostered in 12.7% of ESPN leagues) will most likely start in O.G. Anunoby’s place since he’s already been ruled out due to a sprained left wrist. On Saturday, Achiuwa finished with 55 fantasy points and has scored 25 or more points in all five of his previous games. — Moody

Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 25-25 (21-27-2)
Blazers: 23-26 (25-23-1)

Line: Blazers (-2.5)
BPI Projection: Blazers (119.9-117.2)
Money Line: Hawks (+118), Blazers (-140)
BPI Projected winner: Blazers (59.6%)
Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 237.1 points

Injury Report:
Hawks: Trae Young, (GTD – Ankle)
Blazers: Josh Hart, (GTD – Hamstring); Jusuf Nurkic, (GTD – Calf); Justise Winslow, (OUT – Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

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